I overheard some people at work discussing AA, for whatever reason. One said AA has a 90-95% failure rate.........I wanted to jump into the conversation, but held back for obvious reasons...
What would your thoughts be if you overheard this?
~ They tell me my electricity is back on - woo hoo! So will be headed home after work -- yeeeeee hhhhaaaaa!
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Hey Doll Glad you get to go home!!!! Yeehaa! Hope all is well!
I dont know what the failure rate is but its nice to know we're 100% here!!!!
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"We tend to forget that happiness doesn't come as a result of getting something we don't have, but rather of recognizing and appreciating what we do have. "
I depends on what you consider success. I like the 1990 AA census. I think that they had it at- 1 in 20 make it to 5 years. So that is 5% or a "failure rate of 95%". That's why you'll hear me say over and over again, "what are you doing for your sobriety, that's better then the 19 people that will have to leave for you to stay here?" Many of those people will die of this disease, it's a daunting responsibility if you stop and think about it.
I actually heard it from addiction/alcohol counselors. However, they also added that AA has an impact on even those who don't make the five years. Some never accept (nor even make an attempt to accept) the program put before them, and go right on drinking (the ones in the BB referred to as "constitutionally incapable"). Some make it for a while, then go back out. Of those, some never make it back and drink right on to the end, while others manage to make it back and try again. There is a chance, as Dean has said about his own 2 year battle, that you will eventually become one of those lucky 5% if you don't give up on AA, even while you struggle and stumble your way up that slippery slope.
If you had an illness that doctors all told you was inescapeably terminal, and then told you that there was a medicine you could take that had no serious side effects (and several good side effects), and that it had a 5% cure rate, among anyone who committed to taking a dose every day for the rest of their lives.........I gotta say that I sure would accept those odds against the 0% I would have by doing nothing.
Just my two cents, Dan
An addiction counsellor also told me that the numbers also indicated that the danger of relapse actually increased at the end of the first year, but that your odds improve for every year you make after that, and anyone who made 5 years was statistically on pretty firm ground to go the distance.
An addiction counsellor also told me that the numbers also indicated that the danger of relapse actually increased at the end of the first year, but that your odds improve for every year you make after that, and anyone who made 5 years was statistically on pretty firm ground to go the distance."
Being fully licenced and qualified as an Addiction Councellor...I agree with the above paragraph...100%
There is no doubt in my mind..that the most dangerous ground..is between the 2 and the 4 year mark....
I will also share, that at one point in time...I had a one year medallion...
After I received that medallion..I let AA slide..
Consequences? Drunk in 3 months..
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It is worth considering the entry path of the 95%. How many really want it. Can someone coming in off the DUI manhunt really want it. Maybe after a bad accident but I doubt if those people that have not even felt the nip of the wringer are getting slips signed because they have lost all hope of ever recovering.
People that grasp the program with the desperation of the dieing still do well. The success rate after a voluntary fourth step is huge. People that walk in off the street still do well without a rehab but I am at odds with the dilution of our success failure rate with people that have no plans of even trying it out. How can you count us as failure when an attendees measure of suucces is getting three slip sighned. we are talking about five years and they are talking staying sober for an hour. We want people to return to useful roles in society, a judge sees a success if they keep someone out of society.
Of course we don't have opinions with these issues and we cooperate with outside agencies even at the expense of ourr numbers. Its worth noting also that AA's newer survey in 2004 only counts lenght of time by aaverage under one year.
It doesn't mention that that 28% under a year, over the course of a year turn over multiple times or how often it turns over in that year.
When I was told that 90% of us wouldn't make it a year I was determined to be one of the 10% In todays world a lot of people are forced into recovery who aren't ready or done. Many are mandated by the courts and while most of them don't make it there are miracles. I used to attend a large Friday night speaker meeting that had a average attendance of well over 100, half of those were mandated and had papers that needed signing. A new position of court card signer was created and a stamp was purchases (writers cramps LOL) Most of them didn't make it but there was a married couple that did. She got it right away he was in and out for about 2 years and then he got it too. Now they have both been trusted servant at that meeting, If you look at those who fail it will break your heart and drive you mad, but if you look at those you get it who change beyond all recognition, it can only be the hand of God.
This weekend I'm attending a convention here in Sacramento. At the Friday and Saturday night main speaker meeting there will be around 10,000 recovering men and women.
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good points Tugg. I think from a seat of the pants observation of those that want to be there, about more like 10%-15% probably make it several years. It's hard to know when people move around ect... I know it's one day at a time, but after making it to 1 year, one should make a long term goal of 5 years and don't relent. Like Phil, I felt like I came out the fog at 5 years. That's when I really felt comfortable with my sobriety and in my own skin on a daily basis. I don't want to discourage, it's all good along the way, but I was still making some radical decisions at 3 years.
When I was told that 90% of us wouldn't make it a year I was determined to be one of the 10% In todays world a lot of people are forced into recovery who aren't ready or done. Many are mandated by the courts and while most of them don't make it there are miracles. I used to attend a large Friday night speaker meeting that had a average attendance of well over 100, half of those were mandated and had papers that needed signing. A new position of court card signer was created and a stamp was purchases (writers cramps LOL) Most of them didn't make it but there was a married couple that did. She got it right away he was in and out for about 2 years and then he got it too. Now they have both been trusted servant at that meeting, If you look at those who fail it will break your heart and drive you mad, but if you look at those you get it who change beyond all recognition, it can only be the hand of God.
This weekend I'm attending a convention here in Sacramento. At the Friday and Saturday night main speaker meeting there will be around 10,000 recovering men and women
I'm going to the convention in Sac this weekend. Can't wait, it will be my first.
Maybe thats Gods plan that some dont make it.....Random thoughts here, but for me, having met two great people who are also in the medical field, their stuggles staying sober keep me on the right path! Ironically , one was there for me in the begiining when I just couldnt, or didnt want to get it! Now its my turn to share and listen to her. I see their troubles and heartache and perhaps embarrassment at coming back time after time, sharing that they relapsed! Hey, they keep coming back! But, I dont want to have to start over again!!! Somehow, we always learn a lesson one day at a time!
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"We tend to forget that happiness doesn't come as a result of getting something we don't have, but rather of recognizing and appreciating what we do have. "
Relapse is NOT a requirement Lani. I had dozens of people tell me I needed to go back out. Everytime I asked a question that made them think the answer was that i needed a drink. Wasn't So But I came close, I was almost convinced I wasn't done drinking yet but I hel on cause like you, I din't want to repeat what I had been through up to that point.
I was getting close to giving in to the naysayers when someone told me "Relapse is not a requirement" wheww. I knew I hadn't read that it was and I just started blowing them off. When I don't know the answer I don't tell people they sound like they need to drink. Nope, I aint here to tell em they have to drink.
Yeah, what the feck is that about......being told a relapse would do you good???? I've been told this, i'm guessing because i'm so arrogant it may take me down a peg or two but i'm also far too stubborn to have a relapse I know it is difficult to deal with anothers arrogance (or any other defect) but surely we love unconditionally and to suggest relapse Anyway watched something on you tube the other day....ten reasons to run from AA..... it also said something about 95% failure, guess it is a perception you know glass half full or half empty Counting blessings that i'm in the other 5% with far from perfect recovery loads of defects but still notching up the years and accepting and loving myself more with each and every day.
That's some old timer attitude stuff right there, if a member isn't convinced that they're and alcoholic yet, that "they should try some more controlled drinking". I never liked the idea of telling some one to go out and drink either. If they had said it to me, I might have said "let me introduce you to my little friend" lol
Maybe Im way off but I didnt say relapse was good or that anyone should try it! Im just saying for me....hearing other people share that keeps me sober! What bothers me the most is wondering if there will come a time when they cant or wont make it back!!! Somewhere they have to have the desire to quit! It just hasnt clicked yet!
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"We tend to forget that happiness doesn't come as a result of getting something we don't have, but rather of recognizing and appreciating what we do have. "
I had friend in early recovery that fought the God's plan idea. He was working the thirsd step and he kept thinking that it was God telling him to drink. We struggled a lot as a gang because we didn't tell each other what others conception of God should be nor t negate hwat someone else thought was the call of God. We agreed to put it off for a few days of one day at a time stuff while the guy struggled with disobeying God by not going out.
He came back loudly after several days that God didn't want him to drink, that He had God's voice and his alcoholisms internal voice confused. This was a major step for him. He had been assuming all the voices in his head were God.
He had many;) God bless his soul he just celebrated 20 years in January. :)
Since then, I don't assume god wants any of us to drink, he loves us and doesn't wish any more on us at all. I have had to lean hard on this belief many times over the years. When the real loud voice in my head yells for me to end it all.....I am SURE its not God's....so I REFUSE to obey. God speaks quietly to me, I know his voice.
Go God!!!! Sometimes quickly , sometimes slowly!!!!! Have a happy day!!! I myself will be out enjoying the spring SNOW!!!!! Boo!
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"We tend to forget that happiness doesn't come as a result of getting something we don't have, but rather of recognizing and appreciating what we do have. "
The graph (on page 12) shows that 26% of people who try an AA meeting for the first time are still attending AA after the first year, the attrition is from 19% (those in their first month) to 5% (those in their twelfth), and therefore around 74%.
Good Bump! I participated in this survey ('89). It got my attention that only 5% make it to a year. Sadly, a bunch of those folks leave before 5 years.
-- Edited by StPeteDean on Sunday 12th of December 2010 08:46:47 PM
Anyone who has ever invested in the stock market knows how valuable statistics can be. Until they're wrong of course.
I find it fascinating and wonderful that it's pretty much impossible to gather meaningful statistics about AA's "success rate" or "failure rate". First of all, they rely on a group of people who don't exactly have a reputation for honesty. But while reading this thread and my brain screaming at me to shut up, don't post, don't respond... one thought kept entering my head:
"Rarely have we seen a person fail who has thoroughly followed our path"
That's the only statistic I really need to know.
I have not followed the path as thoroughly as many, practicing the principles to the best of my ability has not produced a steady stream of A+ ratings as to my program conformity. Yet, I have stayed sober. If I can do it, I would thing a person THOROUGHLY following the path could do it.
Or maybe what I was told when I naively asked the question, "What's your success rate?" is the real answer.
"If you don't drink, and go to meetings, it's a hundred percent".
I never had anybody talk to me that way before. I kinda liked it. If I had been told, well according to scientific surveys, you only have a 5 percent chance of getting sober and staying sober, would I have even bothered to go to my first meeting?
It would be curious to see the results of a totally accurate and honest survey, as to what percentage of people who have an honest desire to stop drinking, who want what we have and are willing to go to any length to get it. Of course no such survey is possible. So I'm going to just go with my own experience. MY success rate is 100%. I have not had a drink of alcohol since attending my first AA meeting. My sobriety isn't connected to the other 19 people who MAY have walked into AA the same day that I did, that are not sober today.
You can make stats tell you what you want to hear and it doesn't take much effort.
First you gotta define success.
is it staying sober 1 day? (getting on for 100% success rate) for one year? (maybe 5%) for 5 years? for 10?
Or is it going out and drinking like a gentleman? (anywhere from 0% to say 95%?)
If success is measured by dying sober - then is a man who is sober 1 day as succesful as the 30 year man? Does it really matter?
i've heard it said that this is a selfish and selfless programme at the same time. The selfish part is I will do whatever it takes to stay sober. If there is a danger of you dragging me down I'll drop you like a sack of hot sh1t. The selfless part is if you want to put the work in and get sober, my hand is always out.
how would I react or respond to civilians mutterings about AA's supposed 95% failure rate (or 5% success rate) - I hope I would remember that AA has no opinion on outside issues - and most times, niether should I. It's got somehwere between nothing and bugger all to do wi' me.
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It's not having what you want, it's wanting what you got. BB
Barisax, Those survey results are from 5 different AA surveys over 12 years time, indicating similar numbers. Bill, These are AA Surveys! Not outside surveys. Bill And Barisax, Are you saying that the majority of AAs are liars? And why would they lie in a negative fashion? What benefit would that yield to the "Liar"? And Bari, you're throwing out 5 surveys over 12 years in exchange for your anecdotal evidence? Would you like to discuss how rare a "one night wonder" such as yourself (sober from the first meeting on, up to 21 years)? My educated guess is that would be in hundreths of a percent. Here's some anecdotal evidence for you. Every year I travel back to DC, to the AA club that I got sober in. I knew hundreds of people that I got sober, the same time I did (late '80's/ early '90's) that attended meetings several times a week at that club (and other local meetings). On my visits I attend several meetings at the club and elsewhere. The last 3 years, at the club, I saw no one that I knew from those days, and very few in other meetings. Northern VA is not very transient, most people grew up there / move there and stay.
No, i'm not calling AA liars. I'm calling stats worse than lies. because they can be delivered in a way to show the message you want or theycan be compiled to get the result you want.
95% of people who come to AA fail to stay sober. 5% of people who come to AA stay sober.
Same stat - different message.
Like the Sinclair C5 is the safest road vehicle in the world bar none - there have been no recorded KSI for this vehicle. (I would rather roll naked over broken glass to my destination than drive one of these.) but then the numbers of driver miles in these are so low as to make a valid stat impossible. QANTAS are statistically the safest airline in the world. Concorde is still the safest passenger jet in the world - they only had one crash!
But as i said in teh previous post, if AA have no opinion on outside issues, then really neither should I (to outsiders). If it were members of the fellowship who were saying negative things like AA doesn't work, see the failure rate, then maybe I would chuck my tuppence in. always remembering that my opinion is worth exactly what people pay for it - shag all.
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It's not having what you want, it's wanting what you got. BB
I didn't say the statistics were wrong. They're probably as accurate as they can be given the limitations of the survey.
A meaningful statistic, if it were available, might be, what percentage of people who a) have a desire to stop drinking and b) are willing to go to any length to get it, have stayed sober.
I do not dispute the numbers, I simply don't care about them. Whenever this topic comes up, there's always an underlying implication, "What can we do to get those numbers higher?" That's bullshit. AA isn't a ratings contest, nor, thankfully, do we have to justify our existence annually in order to get government funding, or any other nonsense. We are self supporting through our own contributions. We're here for those who want to get sober. If some other entity says they have a 6% success rate or a 50% success rate, yay for them. I don't feel like a failure for belonging to the 5% club. It's not a goddamn fund drive or media circus, and I feel like I'm being pulled into one.
Really folks, if you're concerned about the numbers, if your agenda is to get better numbers - well, sorry - I don't see that is part of our primary purpose to stay sober and help others to achieve sobriety. TBQH, the only number I care about is Number One, and anyone who reaches out I will gladly pass on what has been given to me because it keeps me sober, not because it boosts some survey numbers.
Hey Bill, why would AA tweak the survey numbers to show negative results? How does that benefit AA? And if it's an AA survey about AA, how is that an "outside issue"? Hey I'm not arguing or trying to be right hear, just trying to understand your point.
Barisax, I agree with you totally. My only point in relaying these low numbers to newcomers is to drive home the same point that you made ~ "what percentage of people who a) have a desire to stop drinking and b) are willing to go to any length to get it, have stayed sober."? That's THE 5% that get sober and the other 95% aren't willing to make the program their primary purpose and to work the steps with a sponsor, do a 90/90.... And if they aren't willing to do these things then they will likely be one of the 19 that goes back out so that the hard working, dedicated recovering person can stay in and stay sober. That's always been my point. So I think that we are saying the same thing. AA works IF you work it, and probably won't if you don't.
If this is essentially saying that 95% of people who just walk in off the street to ONE AA meeting don't stay sober, then I don't have any problem believing that. Trying to walk cold into ANY type of endeavor with no prep, no goals, and no wish to really try is a recipe for failure no matter what you're talking about, whether it's AA, college, or the Marines. That's how I feel most people get their first exposure to AA. Attraction not promotion. If people are expecting AA to be so darn hypnotically persuasive at first glance that it just drags people in off the street and cures them, then their expectations are WAY too high.
I would be interested to see the following study:
Group A: Individuals with a sincere desire to stay sober, having dried out in detox, but then sent right back out into the world. My guess for success rate: 25%
Group B: Individuals with a sincere desire to stay sober, having dried out in detox, but then sent to AA with clear instructions that paying attention is important. My guess for success rate: 80%
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Anyway watched something on you tube the other day....ten reasons to run from AA..... it also said something about 95% failure, guess it is a perception you know glass half full or half empty 
Counting blessings that i'm in the other 5% with far from perfect recovery loads of defects but still notching up the years and accepting and loving myself more with each and every day.
