Since the question is addressed to all of us on the board,,, I am not going to feel like I'm stepping on Phil's toes by replying. One of the things I do is research and this is an interesting topic. There are also a couple of other people on this board who have been in the health care system close enough to maybe have some of this information.

It seems to me that I heard a long time ago that the statistics for junkies to get clean was 5%, so it is interesting to see this number again associated with AA,, because that kind of means that the rate is the same for all these groups.

I'm going to put up a link to a reply that one health care professional gave to the question of the 'success rate' of AA. He basically says that AA is not a treatment program and so the question of 'success' rate does not apply. He says that there needs to be a measurable beginning of treatment and end of treatment to be able to measure,,,, whereas AA is a support group where people come in and out as they desire,,, some newbies and some after absence but being sober,,, some through the revolving door being on and off. but to try to follow every person who starts attending for whatever reason is not that simple.

http://www.cyberpsych.org/cgi-bin/bbs/alcbbs.pl?read=130

Another link is to this question, answered in the early days:

http://www.aa-nia.org/pdf/bill/33a.pdf

One factor in measuring the success rate is that of how thoroughly the person has been working the program. There are many people who come in for fellowship that are not actually learning or working the Steps. There are others who come in and do Steps 1,2 and 3 only. Still others who are what is called Two Steppers - they admit their lives are unmanageable and share that with others. So the success rate should only be measured by those who have actually learned and work the program thoroughly. How many of us on this board have actually thoroughly done all 12 Steps and observe the Traditons, etc? Many have not yet done Step 2, which is a key. The next thing, then, is how long after beginning the program should the success or failure of it be measured? 1 year? 5 years? Some people come in with one day dry,,, but some come in still drinking and get dry only after a few years. Another factor is the criteria for 'success'. Is success only absolute dryness for 20 years straight? or is it sobriety plus a healthy lifestyle and reasonable success in other areas of life? Does a minor slip after 17 years disqualify the person?

Good topic with lots to think about.

amanda