Alcoholics Anonymous
Members Login
Username 
 
Password 
    Remember Me  
Post Info TOPIC: Lollapalooza Effect


MIP Old Timer

Status: Offline
Posts: 1570
Date:
Lollapalooza Effect
Permalink  
 


Here's an interesting incidental reference to AA from the world of investment and psychology.

Munger's measurement of AA success is off, but there is truth about the beneficial effect of AA culture in motivating newly arrived alcoholics to stay sober--as many others have done and are currently doing.

I know that for me, I needed to see and hear others' experience and advice to stay sober. No way I could do it myself. I saw PROOF that I could stay sober. Big motivator to see that proof.

 

Lollapalooza Effect

It's not just a music festival.

 

Charlie Munger, an American businessman, investor, and partner of the legendary Warren Buffett, coined the term "Lollapalooza effect" during a 1995 Harvard speech, in which he reviewed numerous causes of human misjudgment. It has since become another piece of investing jargon.

So what does this term actually mean, and why is it important for investors to understand?

Definition
We humans have many inherent biases and tendencies that can sway our behavior one way or another. When several of them act in concert to drive us toward a particular action, you have a Lollapalooza effect. The Lollapalooza effect can create large-scale drivers of human behavior -- and often error.

What it means in the real world
Though the Lollapalooza effect is often shown in a bad light, it can have both positive and negative outcomes. One positive example of the Lollapalooza effect is the Alcoholics Anonymous program, which, as Munger explains, boasts a no-drinking rate of 50% in cases where all other social and health-related factors fail to motivate alcohol abusers to quit. Munger hails Alcoholics Anonymous as a clever system that makes constructive use of people's psychological tendencies. For example, one reason AA often works is people's natural tendency to imitate those around them. AA members are surrounded by people who have fought to become sober, which makes newer members more likely to follow suit.

On the other hand, Munger also points to the open auction system as a negative example of the Lollapalooza effect. He believes that in this environment, several psychological biases converge, causing people to act foolishly. Namely, the psychological phenomenon known as "social proof" leads people to imitate the actions of others in an effort to reflect seemingly appropriate behavior. As a result, during an auction, participants will often engage in bidding wars because that's what the people around them are doing -- not because they're passionate about acquiring the item up for auction, or because they've drawn the logical conclusion that they're offering a good price for the item. 

The Lollapalooza effect can also apply to investing, causing millions of investors to buy one sector, sell off another sector, or otherwise act as a "herd." This herd mentality is every investor's worst enemy. After all, if you sell when everyone else is selling, then you're probably eating huge losses. If you do the opposite and buy when everyone else is selling, then you're likely getting bargain prices for your shares. So, before you make an investment, it's wise to think about how different psychological factors might be causing an irrational reaction in the market.

The Lollapalooza effect and the mortgage crisis
The 2007-2008 mortgage crisis is a textbook example of the Lollapalooza effect...

http://www.fool.com/knowledge-center/2016/02/26/lollapalooza-effect.aspx



__________________

First, deal with the things that might kill you.

 



MIP Old Timer

Status: Offline
Posts: 12357
Date:
Permalink  
 

Very interest'n for sure ... thanks Pickle ...



__________________

'Those who leave everything in God's hand will eventually see God's hand in everything.'

Page 1 of 1  sorted by
 
Quick Reply

Please log in to post quick replies.